Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Long Term Analysis on YM and ES



Above I have 2 daily Charts of YM(Mini Dow) and ES (Mini S&P 500) The one interesting thing I want to point out is the apparent divergence between price and acc/dist indicator. Based on price action alone, one would say we broke above the 1175 high's before the May crash, and is headed towards the 1216.75 high's of April. But once we take a look at the Acc/Dist, as many of you may know if one of my favorites, we see that it is at the same level as the May 1175 high's. This would suggest a possible reversal here at the 1193 area. This has also been coupled with some MACD divergence. The interesting thing is that, we see the EXACT same thing between the YM and ES charts that makes this so convincing. I personally would not jump short just yet, and wait for an actual reversal. Always look for price first, but this is an warning signal and I'm going to keep my eye on this. Also, considering that volatilities are so low, buying some put protection if your long equities might be a cheap and smart move to consider.