S&P Looking Heavy here

S&P 500 Daily Chart. We just got a daily doji candle as we close right against that trendline resistance today. Notice also the divergence on CCI with price action along with ACC/DIST failing to make new high's. Looking for a pullback into the 1365 area from here.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart Update

Update here to our Weekly Euro Chart I posted 2 weeks ago. We saw that bounce I was looking for from the 1.2060 low's where ACC/DIST showed us we were upon some Major support level. That week we closed with a  bullish engulfing candle and we're in our 2nd week of follow through from that bounce. Here we're seeing some minor resistance on moves higher in the 1.2440 area which is a LVN (Low Volume Node) so expect that level to hold for perhaps this week. Longer term I'm still looking for a move higher into our final 1.2850 LVN Target. Retracements this week could test 1.2130-1.2250 support areas.

Weekly EUR/USD Chart finds Major Support

Pardon the cartoon like drawing, just wanted to show this weekly EUR/USD Chart. We see the approach of a MAJOR support level here from our market breadth indicator ACC/DIST. Pretty self explantory. I'm looking for moves higher into the next LVN around 1.2860 and 1.3200 POC. Also note that looking at most longer term quantative models we've seen most models showing a Fair Value around 1.2900-1.3000.

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Dollar Index Looking a bit Heavy up here

We've a had a huge surge in Dollar Index over the last 2 days due to heavy EUR/USD selling and we see it pushing up against a major trendline resistance going back to early Jan, our first clue of possible selling area. Next we look at our ACC/DIST (market breadth indicator) and we see that it has failed to make new high's despite price posting yearly high's here. Based on this, I would be bearish on Dollar here and look for selling it into this 84.20-84.30 area. The only resistance I see above this is a LVN on a weekly chart's volume profile which stands at 85.20 (Only 1 point higher). For the downside I'd be looking at around 82.00-81.00 as targets for such a trade.

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S&P 500 Chart Update

Time to take a look at our Daily S&P chart. Firstly we should note that we've been in a very choppy and range-bound market for the last couple of months for the S&P(unlike other risk assets), in which case we should be focused on identifying major support/resistance levels and using oscillating indicators for clues for levels to trade.  So I wanted to point out looking at the volume profile on a daily chart, we see 3 majors levels we should be looking at, and they are all low volume nodes on the profile. They stand at 1380, 1335, and 1290. Now if you notice that between 1335 and 1380 is what I consider no-man's land. This is where I would consider the trend to be neutral and using indicators like RSI, Stochastics, CCI's would be useful for range bound trading. Now since most people, including myself, have concerns of downside risk, we are always looking for breaks of any Support levels and in this case I would be looking for a break below 1335 and if we do, I'm expecting a move down to the 1290 level immediately which is our next level of support.

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Submit your Charts you want me to Analyze for $5

I've had many requests from people asking if I can look at this chart or that chart and asking for my opinion. So I'm gonna try something new here. Hopefully your already familiar with Fiverr, the website where you can do things for $5. So I don't think I'm being unreasonable or greedy here, but $5 gets you chart analysis on any 5 stocks/currency/commodity, feel free to mix and match. I have no idea where this will go and how it'll work out, but hey, I'm giving it a shot. CLICK HERE FOR MY FIVERR

Looking at a GBP/JPY Short Setup

Very simple GBP/JPY Short setup here. Watched this break multiple trendlines over the past couple of weeks, and now I'd just look for a break below that 123.00 support to take some shorts here. I would be looking for 119.00 to the downside with stops right above 124.50. Giving us a risk reward of about 3:1.

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Leg lower on S&P

Looking at a Daily S&P Chart, we see a completed C wave and looking for a leg lower here. We missed the 1377 LVN by just 2 points and our ACC/DIST indicator shows a rejection from that resistance that was prior support. I'm looking for a move into that lower LVN in the 1292 area.

EUR/USD Possible move to 1.3020?

Big day for risk assets today, looking at EUR/USD futures, we note that Low Volume Node (LVN) at around 1.2780 area which is a major resistance area. So from this we are definitely  still bearish on Euro as long as we stay below that level, but we cannot rule out a move higher if we break above that considering the market has parred back significantly on Short positions. We would be looking for a move into the 1.3020 area which is our next LVN if we get a daily close above that 1.2780 area, but I would make sure ACC/DIST confirms a break of resistance area before taking long's.

Buying USD/JPY Sept 84 Calls

Over the last few days I've been making a case for bullish USD and short risk plays. One of the ways I was looking to play this was through USD/JPY options. Just a quick and simple analysis here of the chart shows break higher above 21, 49, and 89 EMA's and clean break of this downtrend we've been in since mid-March and our 50 Period CCI reading just poking above 0. Also we see that 79.00 level playing a big role as support/resistance since Nov. that seems to be holding as support here. Thus, I'm looking for a move higher here back to the previous high's, so Sept 84 Calls trading at about 9.6% vol looks quite attractive giving us just over 3 months to see USD/JPY rally.

S&P Futures Chart

Just a quick analysis on SP futures here. Looking at a daily chart, we have a nice rejection off the 61.8 fib level which comes in at 1354. This is in-line with our analysis on Dollar Index and EUR/USD from yesterday and today that is supportive of a bearish view on equities and risk overall, however notice the ACC/DIST indicator (market breadth) is still above its prior resistance which is now support. This is the only thing that's stopping me from outright taking a short position on risk, once that breaks lower, I would be more comfortable with the idea of outright short risk assets, whether it be commodities, currencies or equities.

Expect Dollar Higher and Risk Lower

Today we look at a Daily Dollar Index Chart now that we have FED day over and there are some interesting developments. Just like the EUR/USD chart I put up yesterday, we see that Dollar Index spent the last few days  under that major 81.80 resistance level, but as I pointed out in the EUR/USD anaylsis yesterday, that seems to be misleading. As we look at our ACC/DIST (market breadth indicator) we clearly see that recent price action has been decidedly above prior resistance despite price action telling us otherwise. With this in mind, it would be supportive of a bearish view on risk assets and I would be looking to continue fading moves lower on Dollar and considering selling risk assets against it (Commodities, EUR/USD, Equities).

Fake Risk Rally?

From the FOMC meeting today, risk rallying on that anticipation of QE3,OT,etc..., commodities near yearly low's, to the inverted head & shoulder patterns on just about every risk asset I keep getting in my inbox, a market bottom sure seems possible here. So taking a look at Euro this morning. I noticed something interesting. Looking at Price action alone, it looks like we've pushed back higher above that 1.2620 prior resistance and would indicate a move higher into 1.3000 area (next major resistance area), perhaps even that 1.3170 HVN on daily charts. But looking at ACC/DIST we see a very different picture, we see that this move up higher isn't supported by any real volume and ACC/DIST remains below it's prior resistance level. This would lead me to believe that this rally is a false break (dead cat bounce, short squeeze, whatever you want to call it). I would be looking for that 1.2880 LVN area to bring in a fresh wave of sellers and Euro and other risk assets for another move lower towards yearly low's of 1.2300 area.