Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Fake Risk Rally?


From the FOMC meeting today, risk rallying on that anticipation of QE3,OT,etc..., commodities near yearly low's, to the inverted head & shoulder patterns on just about every risk asset I keep getting in my inbox, a market bottom sure seems possible here. So taking a look at Euro this morning. I noticed something interesting. Looking at Price action alone, it looks like we've pushed back higher above that 1.2620 prior resistance and would indicate a move higher into 1.3000 area (next major resistance area), perhaps even that 1.3170 HVN on daily charts. But looking at ACC/DIST we see a very different picture, we see that this move up higher isn't supported by any real volume and ACC/DIST remains below it's prior resistance level. This would lead me to believe that this rally is a false break (dead cat bounce, short squeeze, whatever you want to call it). I would be looking for that 1.2880 LVN area to bring in a fresh wave of sellers and Euro and other risk assets for another move lower towards yearly low's of 1.2300 area.

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